Key Points
Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) has been one of the greatest stocks to own in our generation. If you had invested $10,000 into Amazon’s stock exactly 25 years ago and held on to it, your position would be worth over $6 million today. That’s simply an incredible run, but what happened in the past is irrelevant. What matters to investors is the future.
What might a $10,000 investment in Amazon look like by the end of 2030? I can assure you it won’t be worth $6 million, but I do think it will be worth a fair bit more than $10,000.
Amazon’s business is shifting
Amazon rose over the past few decades to become one of the world’s largest companies by building a sprawling e-commerce empire and the infrastructure necessary to deliver goods everywhere. It also developed a strong advertising platform, and has pushed its reach well beyond the borders of the U.S. and Canada. However, while e-commerce may be what got Amazon to where it is today, it won’t be what takes it to new heights by 2030.
Instead, its cloud computing wing, Amazon Web Services (AWS), will be what takes it higher. Cloud computing is having a moment right now, as an array of AI firms, longstanding clients, and organizations that need more computing capacity are seeing new AI workloads emerge, and computing power to handle these new jobs is relatively scarce. That’s why Amazon is spending $220 billion on capital expenditures this year: To build new data centers to cater to the rising demand for accelerated computing power. These data centers will eventually become cash cows for Amazon, as the return on investment it makes from these buildings and the computing units inside them is impressive.
This is creating quite a business shift for Amazon, and it’s far from over. During the second quarter, AWS’ revenue rose 37% year over year, more than double the pace of its North American commerce segment, which grew by 16%, or its international business, which grew by 15%. Over time, this will lead to AWS accounting for an ever-larger share of Amazon’s total revenue, but as of right now, it accounts for about 21%. However, AWS’s operating margins are vastly superior to those of the commerce units, which is why that 21% of revenue produced 60% of the company’s total operating income.
Over time, AWS will account for an even larger share of Amazon’s total operating profits, and the impact of that should be a rising total profit margin, which should continue to push the stock higher. This could produce some incredible growth by the time 2030 arrives.
AWS will take Amazon to new heights
It’s hard to estimate a long-term growth rate for AWS since it’s growing so fast right now, and will likely do so for the foreseeable future. If we estimate it will grow at an annualized rate of 30% between now and the end of 2030, that would give it revenue of $483 billion that year. If it maintains its 39% operating margin, that would result in operating profits of $190 billion. For reference, Amazon’s total operating income over the past 12 months was $93.7 billion.
For the other business units, I’ll project a 10% growth rate and a 7% operating margin. That leads to North American commerce contributing nearly $700 billion in revenue, but only producing $49 billion in operating income. The international unit’s outlook is even less impressive, with $65 billion in revenue and $4.5 billion in operating income.
AMZN Operating Income (TTM) data by YCharts.
That’s a total of $260 billion in operating income. Currently, Amazon trades at 29 times operating income. Even if that valuation ratio falls to 25 times operating income, that would result in a market cap of $6.5 trillion. Amazon’s current market cap is $2.8 trillion at a $260 per share price tag. So, that indicates that Amazon could achieve a $600 per share price tag — turning a $10,000 investment today into more than $23,000 by the end of 2030.
That potential for the stock to double in under five years based on conservative estimates is impressive, and I think it underscores exactly why Amazon is a top stock to buy right now.
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Keithen Drury has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.