An oil rally can make an energy portfolio look brilliant and a trip to the petrol station feel like a personal attack. Owning the producer seems like a reasonable way to get some of that money back.
The problem is that US$100 oil can make almost every producer look healthier than it really is.
Brent crude remained above US$100 on October 5 before dipping, while West Texas Intermediate traded below US$90. Canadian producers don’t simply collect whichever number makes the better headline. What ultimately reaches shareholders depends on the oil produced, transportation costs, royalties, taxes, operating expenses and the money required to keep those barrels flowing.
That makes today’s oil boom useful, though that doesn’t quite make valuation optional.
Follow the barrel
The first question I’d ask is whether a producer can generate attractive cash flow when oil is considerably cheaper. That’s important because commodity cycles can make investors feel wealthiest precisely when risk is increasing. A dividend funded comfortably at US$70 oil looks very different from one requiring triple-digit prices to survive.
Investors looking through Canadian dividend stocks should therefore focus on the cash left after necessary spending rather than celebrate revenue alone. Canadian Natural Resources (TSX: CNQ) has the scale to make that calculation interesting.
More than expensive oil
CNQ produces oil and natural gas across a massive portfolio, including long-life oil-sands assets. Those properties can support production for decades, reducing the need to constantly replace the entire resource base. Its second-quarter update raised production guidance after strong drilling results and acquisitions. Planned operating capital remained around $6 billion.
That’s encouraging, but there’s an important wrinkle. The operating-capital figure doesn’t include everything the company must eventually spend. CNQ separately expects roughly $993 million of abandonment spending before recoveries. Closing wells and cleaning up assets isn’t optional simply because it sits outside an operating-capital headline.
That’s why I’d judge the dividend after the entire business gets paid. CNQ currently pays $0.63 quarterly, or $2.50 annually. At a recent $68.68, that’s a yield around 3.6%. That income is useful. The bigger opportunity is what CNQ can do with excess cash when energy prices cooperate.
Considerations
Oil prices remain the obvious risk. A production interruption can also arrive at precisely the wrong point in the cycle, while acquisitions can add both barrels and obligations. At $68.68, I wouldn’t buy CNQ because Brent happens to have three digits in front of it. I’d buy only if the stock still works under a much less exciting oil-price assumption.
For investors holding shares inside a Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA), dividends and gains can generally compound tax-free, provided sufficient contribution room is available. That makes a durable producer far more useful than chasing one unusually profitable quarter.
Bottom line
CNQ’s higher production and enormous asset base give it plenty of ways to benefit from expensive oil. The more important question is what remains for shareholders after operations, capital spending and eventual cleanup are funded.
I’d start with a manageable position and leave room for the inevitable day when crude stops cooperating. If CNQ still produces attractive per-share cash flow, then today’s boom could become a bonus instead of the entire investment thesis.